The European Central Bank insists it has signaled only one interest-rate increase; investors are calling its bluff. They're betting the ECB will raise rates twice this year and most predict a third step by March, even as policy makers admonish markets for jumping the gun. “We're not talking about a series of rate increases,” Executive Board member Juergen Stark said. One move “should be enough,” said board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

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